Will Bryan Johnson outlive Rhonda Patrick?
Will Bryan Johnson outlive Rhonda Patrick?
Basic
3
Ṁ35
2133
59%
chance

Resolves N/A if either Ryan or Rhonda don't die of natural causes.

The intent of the question is to ask which of these two people will live longer assuming they die of natural causes.

There are a few gray areas. I'll deal with some. Euthanasia will count as a natural death as long as it isn't preceded by an accident. In effect, I'll look at the cause directly preceding euthanasia. If someone dies of some preservation technique, again I'll look at the cause directly preceding that event. Any other such events will similarly resolve by looking at the previous causes. In this way, I'm hoping that accidents are the main way this question might resolve N/A.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules