Will there be an oil spill in Alaska before 2030? | Manifold

Will there be an oil spill in Alaska before 2030?

Basic

7

Ṁ152

2029

79%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management estimates a 75% chance of a "large oil spill" spilling more than 1k barrels of oil for offshore oil development.

Now, it's not offshore, but in March 2023, Joe Biden approved a plan to drill for oil in the north of Alaska.

Will there be a "large" oil spill in Alaska spilling more than 1k barrels of oil before 2030?

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I don't think I would use this market as evidence, but I'm going to have a debate about Arctic resource extraction soon, see https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-i-win-my-next-debate-competiti

Will I win my next debate competition?

40% chance. It's online, and the resolution is "The benefits of resource extraction in the Arctic Circle outweigh the harms" Why I might win: I'm a native English speaker, and so is my debating partner, and the competition's in China I think I am a generally good debator Why I may not win: Base rate is low I have some doubts on my Pro case Our debate club meets up twice a week, our debate coach comes once a week. You can ask me for my blocks. Trying to rig this to resolve YES by giving me help is encouraged. I reserve the right to buy YES shares on this market, until the start of the finals debate.

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Related questions

Antarctica cruise leading to oil spill? Before 2030

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Will the world reach peak oil production before 2030?

Will there be an Arctic Blue Ocean Event by 2030?

Will oil cost more than $100/barrel before 2030?

Will a body of water or waterway suffer an oil spill of more than 10 000 tonnes during 2025?

Will global peak oil production occur before 2031?

Will the US produce at least 300 megatons of oil in 2030?

Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?

Will there be an apocalyptic event before 2030?

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