How will the next World War begin?
7
Ṁ87
2030
67%
Conflict in Asia
54%
Conflict in Europe
34%
Conflict in Africa
28%
Conflict in America
14%
Conflict in Antarctica

Resolution Criteria

Answer option "Conflict in Asia", will resolve to "Yes" if significant military escalation has happened in any Asian countries/regions, same as "Conflict in Europe", "Conflict in America", "Conflict in Africa", "Conflict in Antarctica" will resolve to "Yes" if significant military escalation has happened in any European, American, African or Antarctican countries/regions.

When World War happens across two or more continents listed above, all the conflict origin continents will resolve to "Yes".

"World War" will be considered to have begun only if there is a widespread consensus among at least 5, countries or 5 major international organizations (e.g., United Nations, NATO, G7, G20) and at least 10 leading global news outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters, Associated Press, New York Times, The Guardian) that a conflict has escalated to a global scale, involving at least 2 major powers across at least 2 continents, and is explicitly referred to as a "World War" or its equivalent (e.g., "World War III").

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules