By 2026, at least 1 phase 3 clinical trial shows positive results with DMT or 5-MeO-DMT for a mental disorder.
By 2026, at least 1 phase 3 clinical trial shows positive results with DMT or 5-MeO-DMT for a mental disorder.
➕
Plus
7
Ṁ270
2026
60%
chance

Over the past year, multiple phase 2 trials have shown promising results for DMT and 5-MeO-DMT derived compounds for mental illness including anxiety and depression. Ongoing studies are also looking into potential anti-addictive properties that could be used therapeutically in alcoholism or other addiction disorders. The question resolves yes if there are any phase 3 clinical trials published by January 1st 2026 showing positive results for DMT or 5-MeO-DMT in the treatment of any mental illness or addiction. The studied drugs may be patented salts or slight variations of the original psychedelic compounds, but must still have a psychedelic effect in order to count. The question resolves no if there are no published phase 3 clinical trials by the deadline, or if the only published phase 3 trials have significant safety concerns. If results are mixed, I will make the best possible determination at the time.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules