Who will win the World Chess Championship 2024?
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Dec 16
Gukesh D68%

The World Chess Championship 2024 will be a chess match to determine the World Chess Champion. It will be played between the defending champion, Ding Liren from China, and the challenger, Gukesh D from India.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024

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With the match tied it seems reasonable to say that Gukesh should be strongly favored. 11 games to go and Ding seems to have lost a lot of confidence today.

Ding is up 1-0

I understand the extraordinary performance of Gukesh, but I think that Ding Liren has more than a 17% chance to win, I’d say a 30% chance would be more accurate.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 80% order

@MauroDelloStorto I put up a limit order at 80% for Gukesh if you're interested.

@MauroDelloStorto Ding has won precisely one game against 2700+ level opposition all year, played abysmal chess, confessed to mental struggles and is rated 60 points worse than Gukesh. 17% is too generous to him.

@dlin007 Do you know what Ding's performance rating has been for the past year? I assume it's well under 2700.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 cursory chatgpt analysis...did a sanity check for the olympiad and it looks basically correct. I guess the 20% chance is optimists hoping he's turned a corner or undergone some intervention but realistically speaking he's going to get spanked. best case scenario is he'll do just well enough to not embarrass himself but still lose in normal fashion. There's almost <5% chance that he wins 2 games in the match which will be necessary to win

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Who do you think will win?

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