After the next Australian federal election, will the crossbench in the Senate be larger than after the last election?
Basic
3
Ṁ402025
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next federal election in the Senate must take place before the 24th of May, 2025.
After the last federal election, there were 18 senators on the crossbench (neither the government or the opposition). If after the next Senate election, there are 19 or more senators on the crossbench, this question will resolve YES. If there are 18 or fewer, this question will resolve NO.
(Note that senators like David Van who move to the crossbench and proceed to either not be up for election or win re-election at the next Senate election could end up counting towards this total)
This question will resolve only after the ABC's senate results page has no seats remaining in doubt.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
What will be true of the next general election for the House of Representatives in Australia?
Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?
11% chance
After the next Australian federal election, will any party control a majority of the seats in the Senate?
11% chance
Which Australian political party will become the dominant party after the next House election (as of Feb 2024)?
Will the Liberal/National Coalition win more seats in the House of Representatives in the next Australian federal election than it did in the 2022 Australian federal election?
79% chance
In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?
20% chance
Australia house of representatives after next election
Will the next Australian federal election be a double dissolution election?
14% chance
Australian election: Which teals will be re-elected?
Which seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next general election for the House of Representatives?