How long will my relationship with my current boyfriend last?

Premium

Ṁ10k

2026

0.8%

[0 to 3) Months

1.4%

[3 to 6) Months

14%

[6 to 9) Months

26%

[9 to 12) Months

16%

[12 to 15) Months

[15 to 18) Months

[18 to 21) Months

[21 to 24) Months

24%

>= 24 Months

Market for the duration of my relationship with my current boyfriend Jared Frank (https://www.instagram.com/jared.frank?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==), which began on March 10th, 2024. Neither Jared nor I will be betting in this market.

Only one answer will resolve YES, and it will be the one which corresponds to either the date which one of us breaks up with the other or the day after our 2 year anniversary. Square brackets indicate an inclusive date, and parentheses indicate an exclusive date.

The exact dates by month are below, organized as Month, Date:

3, 06/10/24

6, 09/10/24

9, 12/10/24

12, 03/10/25

15, 06/10/25

18, 09/10/25

21, 12/10/25

24, 03/10/26

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

18 Comments

18 Holders

66 Trades

Sort by:

Still together. I’m visiting his family for Thanksgiving, and he’s meeting my family before christmas.

@SteveAcomb

turkey trot

boughtṀ1,000 NO

@TheAllMemeingEye

looks like you’re the one to claim the guaranteed profit this time

Update: we’ve passed the 6 months threshold. I’m writing this from his apartment, and we have plans for Thanksgiving.

@SteveAcomb

I also just added another 2500 in liquidity subsidies.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@SteveAcomb 3 to 6 months is 100% guaranteed to resolve no now right?

@TheAllMemeingEye correct.

More context to help prediction accuracy since I just boosted this market up to Plus:

We’re both electrical/computer engineers writing software for a living.

We’re both out & openly gay.

I’ve met his family & got along with them.

We live in different states but alternate driving to spend almost every weekend with eachother.

Additionally:

I have been the one to dump every single one of my previous partners.

@SteveAcomb how long roughly did your previous relationships last?

@TheAllMemeingEye

Longest was 13 months and was immediately prior to this one. The others averaged roughly 3 months.

sold Ṁ3 YES

@SteveAcomb thanks 👍

bought Ṁ100 YES

I believe in you two!

Thanks! ☺️

I should add that if we break up I promise to personally find ways to reimburse anyone who trades between the instant we do so and the time the market resolves. All incentives WILL be such that correct predictions are rewarded.

soldṀ11 YES

smart man lol

Update: we are currently still committed and have both told one another “I love you.” I will continue not trading in this market however for obvious conflict-of-interest reasons lol

(hint: rational traders should now immediately bet the 3 month out, since it is now 100% assured to resolve NO)

Related questions

Related questions