Will GDP grow at more than 7% on average around 2030?
Will GDP grow at more than 7% on average around 2030?
Plus
16
Ṁ4942033
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market aims to bet on the impact of the convergence of technological trends on the economy, inspired by the following statement of ARK invest:
"During the current business cycle, we believe real gross domestic product (GDP)i growth could accelerate to 7% per year on average, surpassing that of any year since 1950."
For the purpose of this market, the outcome will be true if:
GDP of EITHER the USA OR the total of global economies grow at 7% or more on average between the years 2028-2032.
I intend to avoid betting on the market. I might change the description slightly if someone in the comments shows a better way to evaluate the original ark statement. However, I'd rather avoid making any change and I'll definitely avoid to do it after the first year that this market has gone public.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
56% chance
Will India's GDP cross $7 trillion by 2030?
63% chance
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?
13% chance
Will global GDP growth rate (real) exceed 21% by the end of the 21st century?
28% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2030?
12% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?
43% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030?
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043?
43% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2035?
25% chance
Will US GDP growth be greater than 10% in 2029?
18% chance