Will there be a Democratic Supreme Court majority before the advent of AGI?
Plus
13
Ṁ3612039
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is closed now and was by a very inactive user, but I was jealous of its creativity and am copying it.
For the purposes of this market:
a Democratic Supreme Court Majority refers to when a majority of the Justices on the Court are appointed by US Presidents belonging to the Democratic Party.
For the definition of AGI, I refer to the terms defined in this Metaculus question.
I will be betting in this market. I don't foresee any plausible ambiguities in this question, but in the event of any ambiguities I consent to turning over the resolution of this market to trustworthy-ish users.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2028?
32% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
44% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?
43% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
65% chance
Will the next Supreme Court justice be appointed by a Democrat?
9% chance
Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta?
68% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
28% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
60% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
70% chance