Will Robin Hanson (professor, blogger, and inventor of prediction markets) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Basic
8
Ṁ3942029
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Robin Hanson (professor at George Mason, blogger, and inventor of prediction markets) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Anders Sandberg (researcher and futurist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
4% chance
Will Marc Andreessen be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
8% chance
Will Max Tegmark (physicist, Future of Life Institute) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
5% chance
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?
4% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
5% chance
Will Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Cardano and Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
11% chance
Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
9% chance
Will Peter Thiel be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
6% chance