The IDF has announced Gazans should move to al-Mawasi:
By Feb. 1 2024, will Israel explicitly allow Gazans to return to other areas of Gaza? Alternatively, will they demand Gazans leave Gaza entirely?
In the interest of simplicity, this market is based exclusively on Israeli statements: official press releases, fliers airdropped on Gazans, etc. If Israel announces that they will allow Gazans to return north of Wadi Gaza before February and does not rescind that statement, then bombs Gazans who travel to that area, the market still resolves to "An area including land north of Wadi Gaza" as their formal position is to allow Gazans back.
In order to resolve as anything other than "Only in al-Mawasi or another area of similar or smaller size (<20km^2) south of Wadi Gaza", there will have to be an explicit Israeli statement allowing Gazans to return to other areas (or demanding they leave Gaza entirely) by Feb. 1. Not killing every Gazan who leaves al-Mawasi, or tolerating Gazans who fail to move there will not be sufficient evidence.
Israeli statements do not need to give express permission; implied permission like designating areas north of Wadi Gaza as once again "safe areas" will be sufficient.
I will resolve this market based on Israeli press releases and a consensus of credible reporting on the content of fliers dropped in Gaza, announcements made in Gaza by the IDF, etc.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00