Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?
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Tianwen-3 is a dual launch mission comprising a combination orbiter and Earth return vehicle, and a combination lander ascent vehicle. Both are built by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) for CNSA, China's national space agency. The orbiter / return vehicle is planned to be launched in November of 2028, the lander is planned to be launched in May or December of 2028. For this market to resolve "Yes" the sample of Mars needs to safely reach Earth in a state which allows for useful science to be done on it.
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