Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 1, 2025, there is credible evidence of Indian military forces crossing into Pakistani territory with the intent to engage in combat operations. The primary source for verification will be official statements from the Indian Ministry of Defence or the Pakistani Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR). In the absence of such statements, reports from reputable international news organizations will be considered. If no such evidence is available by June 1, 2025, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated following a deadly attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-based militant groups, leading to a series of retaliatory actions, including missile strikes under "Operation Sindoor" on May 7, 2025. These strikes targeted alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. In response, Pakistan conducted its own military operations, resulting in casualties on both sides. A ceasefire was announced on May 10, 2025, mediated by the United States, aiming to de-escalate the situation. (axios.com)

Considerations

While a ceasefire is currently in place, the situation remains volatile. Both nations have a history of rapid escalation following terrorist incidents, and the potential for further military action cannot be discounted. Traders should monitor official communications from both governments and reputable news sources for any developments indicating a breach of the ceasefire or new military engagements.