Background

On December 14, 2024, South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol following his declaration of martial law on December 3, which was quickly overturned by the Assembly. The case is currently being deliberated by the Constitutional Court (not the Supreme Court), which has the final authority on impeachment cases in South Korea.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the Constitutional Court of South Korea upholds President Yoon's impeachment, resulting in his removal from office. The market will resolve NO if the Constitutional Court overturns the impeachment, allowing Yoon to remain in office.

If the Constitutional Court fails to reach a decision for any reason (such as if Yoon resigns before the ruling), the market will resolve NO.

Considerations

• The Constitutional Court requires a two-thirds majority (6 out of 9 justices) to uphold the impeachment

• If the impeachment is upheld, a new presidential election must be held within 60 days

• While many legal scholars expect the Court to uphold the impeachment, the outcome remains uncertain

• Yoon's legal team argues that his martial law declaration was an act of governance not subject to judicial review

• Yoon also faces separate criminal charges of insurrection related to the martial law declaration