Submit U.S. Congressional districts as options. I will resolve options to YES if the candidate who wins that district's race in the November general election is of a different party than the incumbent. This would include flipping from one of the major parties to a third party or independent and vice-versa, or from one third party to another third party, from an independent to a third party, etc. Also, the incumbent doesn't actually have to be running for reelection - all that matters is that the district switches parties.
You can also submit special elections that occur in 2024 as options, but you must specifically state that you are referring to the special election in that district, not the regular election. Otherwise, I will only resolve YES only if the district flips in the general election. For example, if a version of this market had existed for 2022, AK-AL (special election) would have resolved YES, but AK-AL would have resolved NO.
If your option does not refer to a Congressional district or is a duplicate of an existing option, it resolves N/A. It also resolves N/A if it is a special election option, but no special election is held for that district in 2024.
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3.00@PlasmaBallin @ManifoldPolitics @mods
And CO-08 resolves as YES — and AZ-06, CA-22, CA-41 resolve as NO.
@PlasmaBallin Yeah, for some reason there's a few NYT graphics that don't show a flip despite having the accurate party color
@PaintspotInfez Yeah, I had to go through each one manually to see if it had really flipped from last time.
Oops, forgot to tag @mods
Since it's getting hard to scroll through and see which ones are still on the table
@PaintspotInfez I changed the sort to trending ... hopefully another mod will actually resolve them but this will be a good stopgap
@PlasmaBallin NY-03 special 2024 flipped to D (Suozzi) back in February so I guess a yes for this would be flipping back to R.
CO-3 is now unlikely to be won by a Democrat since Boebert is moving to a different district. The district leans heavily Republican, but Boebert is such a terrible candidate that she was looking likely to lose to Adam Frisch. Now Frisch will probably be up against someone more electable, which will make it much more of an uphill battle for him.
@nikki I will just go by district number because there's not really a way to define "successor district". E.g., if the land and population making up one district gets split evenly into parts of three districts in the new map, which one is the successor district?
@sarius and they have all been bet into the rough probabilities I would assign to each of them flipping. NJ-06 was a typo... Frank Pallone is in a safe Dem seat.