If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
Basic
2
Ṁ102027
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Trump does win, resolves to the unemployment rate at the end of 2026, times 10. For example, an unemployment rate of 3.9% would result in a "39%" resolution on this question, and so on. An unemployment rate of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
I will use BLS's seasonally-adjusted civilian unemployment rate, as here: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm#
I'll use the last published datapoint for 2026. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
I will not trade in this market.
Compare:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
60% chance
If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?
45% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many unemployed persons per job opening will the US have a year later?
If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
Will unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
24% chance
If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
33% chance
If Trump wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025?
32% chance
If Trump wins, what will the Democracy Index be for the US at the end of his presidency?
If Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, will the US average over 3% real GDP growth from 2025-2028?
38% chance