When will peace talks between Russia and Ukraine start?
When will peace talks between Russia and Ukraine start?
Basic
12
Ṁ8182050
2027
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For the purposes of this market, I won't count:
Negotiations where one of the parties is not present (such as the UN summit proposed by Ukrainian FM Kuleba)
Negotiations about matters not including a permanent peace settlement (such as the grain deal or an armistice)
Negotiations conducted through intermediaries/backchannels (e.g. oligarchs or other third parties)
An announcement of peace talks without them actually taking place
This is an extension of two more specific markets:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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