Gary Gensler thinks it may. Tyler Cowen thinks not.

Resolves according to Tyler Cowen's judgment if and when a market crash occurs.

• Resolves YES if a crash occurs and Tyler Cowen says it is at least likely and largely attributable to AI, or some nearby version of that proposition.

• If Tyler Cowen agrees a crash occurred but is uncertain about its causes, I will resolve to a probability based on Cowen's credence at the time.

• If Cowen won't provide a credence, I will resolve to 50%.

• If no crash occurs by the end of 2024 or one occurs but it is unambiguously not attributable to AI, this resolves NO.

I will not trade in this market.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/10/will-ai-cause-a-market-crash.html

Will AI cause a market crash/ - Marginal REVOLUTION

Gary Gensler has been worrying about this, and calling for extra regulation, but the arguments behind his view are not so strong.  Here is one part from my latest Bloomberg column: One fear is that a small number of AI base models could lead investors to herd behavior, where many of them sell (or buy) at the […]

Related but with different timeline and resolution criteria. While Zvi's operationalization of 'financial crash' is helpful as a heuristic, note that I will defer to Cowen's judgment. If Cowen describes a financial markets event as 'crash' on Marginal Revolution or elsewhere, this will make the event a candidate for resolution.