Will the four year bitcoin cycle continue?
Basic
6
Ṁ822027
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The all time high of bitcoin, and the max of the last bull market, was achieved Nov 10, 2021, at 2:24pm utc.
This seeks to ask if the cycle will continue according to a simple definition, asking if there will be a new peak be about four years after this.
Specifically, according to coinmarketcap.com will the intraday high of bitcoin between Nov 10, 2023
and November 10, 2027 (at 2:24pm utc) occur within 6 months of the four-year anniversary of the previous peak on Nov 10, 2025?
Note it is not required for this question that this peak exceeds the previous all time high.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?
26% chance
Will the price of Bitcoin have tripled 2 years from today?
80% chance
Will Bitcoin remain above 90000$ on June 1, 2025?
60% chance
Will Bitcoin ever see four-digit prices again?
47% chance
Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression
Will, at any point in 2025, bitcoin's price fall below its price exactly 4 years before that moment?
25% chance
Will 2024 be Bitcoin's lowest-volatility year ever?
10% chance
What do you think will happen to Bitcoin by the end of 2024?