When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
➕
Plus
6
Ṁ337
2035
34%
2026 or earlier
50%
2027 or earlier
66%
2028 or earlier
85%
2029 or earlier
83%
2032 or earlier
87%
2035 or earlier

Resolves YES once an individual Starship second stage launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch

The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the booster or launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed

Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it

The launches themselves don't need to be successful

Starship does not need to be its exact name but it must be the second stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle

I've tried to make this market resilient to any changes SpaceX could make in how Starship is supposed to launch and land - but I won't participate in this market just in case it is ambiguous

UTC is used for dates

Please ask if you want anything clarified

Related markets:

When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?

When will a Starship first relaunch in under 24hrs?

When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs?

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules