How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2025 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Plus

Ṁ471

2026

11%

261 or less

32%

262-280

30%

281-300

28%

301+

(There were 261 orbital launch attempts in 2024)

This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.

If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.

See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Space

#Rockets

#Commercial spaceflight

#Everyday Astronaut Predictions

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

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