A P(doom) is an explicit, numerical probability of AI causing humanity to go extinct or permanently disempowered.

If the president says something equivalent to a percent chance, the market resolves.

(“The probability is like rolling snake eyes” = 1/36 so it resolves.

“Like playing Russian Roulette” wouldn’t count because that is a figure of speech for describing any risky behavior.)

If a range is given, the market resolves if the range is less than 30%.

(“Probability of extinction is somewhere from 0-20%” resolves. Probability is somewhere from 0-50% does not resolve)

If an unclear statement is given (I’ll use my best judgement) then this market will wait for a better statement.

(Eg “it’s somewhere from 0-50%, probably on the lower side” would not resolve the market.)

If someone employed by the president (eg Press Secretary or official White House public communication) states a probability speaking on behalf of the president or the president’s administration, that counts.

If the next president states a P(doom) before Inauguration Day 2025, this market will resolve when the president is sworn in.

Unless the president has already stated a P(doom), this market resolves “No” on Inauguration Day 2029 when the next president is sworn in, even if it is the same person.

If the President is replaced during their term, the questions then refer to their successors. (Eg if Trump steps down, then the Trump questions would be about Vance)

The “other” option is to make more options if someone else seems to have a chance of winning the 2024 election. That’s unlikely.

Edit: This would be great in conjunction with a numerical market, but those are expensive!