AI Generated Description, Reviewed by me

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve “Yes” if official UK government statistics show that more than 5,000 citizenship deprivation orders (under s.40 of the British Nationality Act 1981 or successor provisions) are completed in any single calendar year from 2025 up to and including 2030.

To count:

1. Data source – The figure must come from:

- The Home Office “Transparency Data: Deprivation of Citizenship” release,

- An official written ministerial statement, or

- A Home Office FoI reply confirmed by reputable media (BBC, FT, Guardian, Times, etc.).

2. “Naturalised citizens” – Deprivations must involve people who acquired British citizenship after birth (including via naturalisation, registration, or birth to non-citizen parents) and were later stripped of it.

3. Completed in-year – Only orders signed and legally effective (not merely initiated) in that calendar year count.

If no year from 2025-2030 exceeds 5,000 completed deprivations, the market resolves “No.”

Background

Current scale: Home Office data show 94 deprivations in 2022 and 142 in 2021. The post-2010 peak was 201 orders in 2019.

Legal power: The Home Secretary may deprive a naturalised Briton if citizenship was obtained by fraud or if doing so is “conducive to the public good” (national security, serious crime).

Trend drivers:

- Rising use against terror suspects and organised-crime figures.

- Proposed expansion to target large-scale document fraud rings (e.g. sham marriage networks).

- Potential political appetite for mass revocation if public anger over crime or failed integration spikes.

A single policy push or amnesty-review could take annual revocations from hundreds to thousands in one year—especially if a backlog is cleared.

Notes & Considerations

Does not include failed applications or voluntary renunciations.

Dual nationals only – UK cannot legally make people stateless; mass revocations would target those with another citizenship.

Monitoring: Home Office publishes deprivation totals annually with a 6--9-month lag; market resolves once that release confirms >5,000 for any year 2025-30.