Next edition:

The race was intensely competitive and super close almost the entire time. Lindsay was slightly beating me at the halfway mark and the 3 quarter mark, and then I pulled ahead meaningfully at the end with a minute lead in the last quarter.

Even though I ultimately won, the true probability should definitely not have been 15% in my favor and I was way too confident going in. It was not at all clear that I would win until the very end and I pushed myself really hard.

@CarsonGale Congrats on the win and thank you for your frequent updates about the race!

Starting the race now-ish!

Offering Lindsay use of my Nike Vaporflys, men’s size 9.

@JCE Lindsay says thank you for the offer :)

@CarsonGale Takes 30 seconds off each mile!

@JCE seriously?? That is crazy and almost unbelievable

@CarsonGale Depends probably on what your avg pace is. Best estimates are that they're somewhere between 3-5% faster than a normal shoe. So 24 seconds if you average 8:00/miles at the top end. For me there's also a psychological boost. See: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/13/upshot/nike-vaporfly-next-percent-shoe-estimates.html

Nike’s Fastest Shoes May Give Runners an Even Bigger Advantage Than We Thought (Published 2019)

Data from more than 1 million races.

@JCE wow - that is amazing!

@JCE Hey! I remember reading this article and watching some videos/doing my own research into it and for the last 1.5-ish years, ZoomX Vaporfly have been my go to running shoes! I sometimes even wear them for walking and I can attest to how comfortable they are. What a great purchase.

@firstuserhere That's awesome. They are pretty miraculous and definitely make running more fun. I don't wear them often because their durability isn't the best, but definitely a product that's worth every dollar. I have a pair of hokas that also have a carbon plate, and there are plenty of other competitors now, but I think Nikes still have an edge.

No new updates - I just feel extremely confident. Think of my last bet as something akin to smack talk.

As an update, we started the race and were both around the same pace for the first mile or so, after which I started to pull ahead. I didn't see Lindsay for the next 2 miles or so until I was coming back (it was an out and back), at which point I learned that Lindsay had started experiencing severe cramping and decided she wouldn't be able to finish.

We collectively decided to postpone the race in the spirit of fairness, and expect to try again either today or next weekend.

Lindsay still feels confident she can beat me if she weren't cramping, but I am conversely even more confident now that I can beat her given performance over the first 2 miles.

This race is reminding me of the end of this SNL skit

https://youtu.be/AA0PwmQMVG8?si=5sK_ZyHe60yWOejT

We're expecting to start the race in the next 30 min or so

Perhaps not justified, but I feel very confident that I will win. We will be racing probably tomorrow. I left a large limit order on me winning if anyone wants to fill it - at good odds!

@CarsonGale Goodluck, enjoy the profits and the victory, if you win, but I feel compelled to take at least part of that limit order. Have a good race!

I suspect he’s more competitive than you!