Will "Updatelessness doesn't solve most problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Basic
4
Ṁ502026
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Updatelessness doesn't solve most problems is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will "Most People Don't Realize We Have No Idea How..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
37% chance
Will "Without fundamental advances, misalignment an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
46% chance
Will "Failures in Kindness" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
44% chance
Will "There are no coherence theorems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
34% chance
Will "A rough and incomplete review of some of John..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "The Dial of Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "Don't accelerate problems you're trying to solve" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Model, Care, Execution" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
22% chance
Will "The self-unalignment problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
13% chance