Will any company report revenue exceeding $10 Million USD from the sale of materials sourced in space by Jan 1, 2031?
Will any company report revenue exceeding $10 Million USD from the sale of materials sourced in space by Jan 1, 2031?
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Resolves to YES if any company reports revenues that are generated from sales of materials sourced from space beyond Low Earth orbit in excess of 10 million USD at the time of reporting (other currencies will be converted to the spot price at the time of reporting for the purposes of this market) by Jan 1, 2031.
Materials must be sourced from beyond Low Earth orbit. Low Earth orbit is defined as the region below 2000km altitude from the earth's sea level. Processed materials are included so long as the majority of the processed product's value is derived from material sourced from beyond Low Earth orbit.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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