Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceeds 2% before 2026. With interest rates still high and remote work reshaping office demand, it's a tough climate for many property owners. I’ve been tracking market trends using 

, and even though it’s UK-focused, the insights on commercial shifts and investor behavior feel globally relevant. Real estate, like human behavior, reacts to uncertainty, especially financial and structural changes. If inflation lingers or another economic shock hits, we could easily see delinquency spike.

I will use "Delinquency Rate on Commercial Real Estate Loans (Excluding Farmland), Booked in Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks (DRCRELEXFACBS)" from the St Louis Fed:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS

If this index is above 2% for any quarter before Q1 2026, I will resolve YES, and NO otherwise.

The intention of this market is to assess fears that remote work could lead to a decline in office space rents and cause a financial crisis for small banks that are overexposed on these loans.

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