Will there be a peaceful transfer of power in any African country in the next six months?
Basic
12
Ṁ210Feb 3
89%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Several African countries are slated to hold elections in the next six months. This market will resolve to YES if one of these elections results in a president or prime minister from a different political party and the transfer of power is reasonably peaceful (ie no large-scale political violence, <100 deaths of peaceful protests and no armed fighting).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a successful coup in Africa in 2024?
29% chance
Will there be a coup in Africa during 2024?
16% chance
Will Russia have a successful peaceful transition of power from Vladimir Putin to the next ruler(s)?
50% chance
When will peaceful democratic transition of power happen in Russia for the first time?
Will a major regional conflict (including a civil war, coup, internal conflict) escalate in Africa within the next year?
79% chance
Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029?
32% chance
Will there be a successful coup in 2024 that overthrows the government of the Central African Republic?
10% chance
Will Guinea's planned elections occur?
38% chance
Will any African countries federate/merge by 2040?
39% chance
Will Niger return to civilian rule by the end of 2024?
18% chance