Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
49%
chance

OpenAI released this paper arguing that one of the reasons LLMs hallucinate is because their post training incentives them to guess when they don't know the answer to a question. They suggest penalizing LLMs for answering a question incorrectly instead of claiming ignorance.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04664

Resolves yes if OpenAI (or an OpenAI employee) claims a Frontier Model released by them was trained using this technique.

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Ṁ1,000
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S3.00
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