This market resolves YES if the U.S. government either abolishes federal student loans or implements substantial modifications to the federal student loan system before January 1, 2026. Substantial modifications would include any of the following:
Switching to a system where private lenders backed by government guarantees issue student loans
Consolidating all federal loan programs into a single program with income-driven repayment
Converting the Federal Student Aid office into a new government corporation
Switching to fair-value accounting from FCRA accounting
The market resolves NO if none of these changes occur by January 1, 2026.
1,000
3.00I doubt we’ll see anything that drastic before Jan 1, 2026. The government has been tweaking repayment plans and forgiveness policies, but abolishing or restructuring the entire federal loan system feels like a much bigger lift politically. Honestly, I keep track of my own loans via the credit karma customer service, and even though it has been decent, even they haven’t hinted at anything major coming down the pipeline soon.