Will there be 1000+ rowi (rarest type of kiwi bird) by end of 2035?
Will there be 1000+ rowi (rarest type of kiwi bird) by end of 2035?
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There were estimated 165 in the 90s and 600 in 2019. Will the population be 1000 or more by the end of 2035?
I will resolve according to Wikipedia or the New Zealand Department of Conservation. If I (and commenters) can't find an updated estimate that is over 1000, market resolves NO shortly after the start of 2036 (to give us time to find evidence). Market will resolve YES early if estimates greater than 1000 come or early, so this is about whether the population will pass 1000, not whether it will still be that high in 2035.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okarito_kiwi
I may trade in this market. I will adjust close date when I'm at a computer because it's tedious to do it on a phone.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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