USA will advise all American citizens to leave Taiwan anytime through 2032
Basic
3
Ṁ2012033
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The advice also has to be in place for at least two weeks
IE temporary physical emergencies if short duration won't count
Not necessarily from any China-related issue
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
6% chance
Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before June 2025?
6% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
7% chance
At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037
38% chance
Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before Dec 2027?
30% chance
No regular public passenger flights from the US to Taiwan for a month, before 2039
30% chance
No regular public passenger flights from the US to Taiwan for a month, before 2039
21% chance
Taiwan/ROC government in exile supported by US any time through 2033
29% chance
Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?
68% chance
Will the US station 500 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?
40% chance