Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026
Plus
22
Ṁ15772026
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Russia attacks a NATO member before 2031?
53% chance
Will Russia invade Finland/Norway before the Winter Olympics conclude?
2% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
7% chance
Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
16% chance
Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
11% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
2% chance
When will Russia have military encounter with Finland?
Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026?
80% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
4% chance