When will the combined market cap of crypto exceed the GDP of the largest country?
When will the combined market cap of crypto exceed the GDP of the largest country?
Basic
7
á¹€1362041
5%
Before 2030
6%
Before 2035
11%
Before 2040
79%
Never/ later than 2040
Largest economy right now is USA (USA! USA! USA! 🤠) at 25.5T USD as of 2023-08-11
Combined crypto market cap is 3T USD as of 2023-08-11
All prices will be in then current USD
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What will be the first cryptocurrency to surpass Bitcoin's market cap?
What year will the total Crypto market cap exceed its previous all time high?
When will Bitcoin market cap exceed Gold market cap?
Will the total crypto market cap reach >10 trillion USDe before 2030?
47% chance
Will a new crypto memecoin reach $100 billion in market cap in 2025?
17% chance
Will any cryptocurrency have a higher market cap than Bitcoin on Jan. 1st, 2030?
14% chance
Which digital currency will have the highest market capitalization by 2028?
Will any cryptocurrency surpass the market caps of both Bitcoin and Ethereum before 2035?
14% chance
Which cryptocurrencies will have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?
Will any cryptocurrency have a market cap of at least $100 billion at the end of 2026?
95% chance