Will Russia cede territory to China by 2040 as predicted by Sarah Paine?
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In this interview at 1:50:50 Sarah Paine predicts that China will choose an opportune time to demand territory in Siberia from Russia. She says that a war is unlikely, rather the Chinese will give the Russians an offer they can't refuse.
In particular she notes Lake Baikal will be very useful for China's water shortages.
This market resolves if any such concessions are made by 2040.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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