At the beginning of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Plus
34
Ṁ20002026
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See base market: /ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
On Jan 1st, 2026, I'll try to ask @ScottAlexander if he thinks such a capability already exists. If he's unavailable/unwilling to adjudicate, I'll defer to my best understanding of the criteria. I reserve the right to resolve N/A or wait until Scott clarifies the criteria if there is significant ambiguity. I won't bet in this market (but I may in the other one).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
45% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
74% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
36% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
27% chance
Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
30% chance
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
67% chance
In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
73% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
60% chance
In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?
23% chance