Will me and my wife reach our 20 year anniversary?
Will me and my wife reach our 20 year anniversary?
Plus
12
Ṁ2872036
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
We have been married since March 25, 2016. We are currently very happily married and so far have been very loyal to each other. We have three kids, I have a stable job, and we bought a home in summer of 2021. I personally am a strong believer that we will never get divorced or separated. But what do you think?
Will resolve YES if me and my wife are still married and together on March 25, 2036.
Will resolve NO if me and my wife decide to separate or get divorced before March 25, 2036.
Any updates about family life and how we are doing as a couple will be added here. I will likely be adding my personal Mana to the YES vote.
I started by adding 40 Mana to YES. Will probably add more as more people vote.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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