Will the US Still Be Considered a Superpower by EOY 2040?
Will the US Still Be Considered a Superpower by EOY 2040?
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Will there still be a consensus that the US is a global superpower, e.g. by the English Wikipedia page on Superpowers. If the US ceases to exist, it will resolve No. If the Us changes shape but is still called the United States of America and is still considered a superpower, it will resolve Yes. If it is unclear if the US is still a superpower, it will resolve No.
If the concept of a global Superpower is no longer relevant in 2040, it will resolve N/A.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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