Will Taiwan hold a referendum on declaring independence from the mainland by the end of 2024?
Plus
61
Ṁ9569Jan 1
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Taiwan holds a formal referendum to decide on the question of independence from the mainland. Resolves NO if no such vote takes place.
If a vote is scheduled but doesn’t take place by the end of 2024 this resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
30% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will Taiwan remain independent of China through 2049?
45% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
32% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
34% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024?
4% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
26% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
45% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
33% chance