Will China test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2025?
Plus
33
Ṁ13472026
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Chinese have said they will growth their strategic and tactical weapons stockpiles rapidly over the coming decade. This market resolves YES for the first test during the timeframe between the open and close dates conducted by the Chinese government.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Growth of stockpiles doesn’t require testing of actual bombs. Nuclear physics is an old science. Nowadays the only thing worth testing is delivery.
Only reason for a test would be as intimidation.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)
11% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?
11% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
24% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will China test a nuclear weapon during 2024?
7% chance
Will China conduct a nuclear test in 2024?
6% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
15% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will India test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026?
34% chance