Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next presidential election in El Salvador is deemed both free and fair by a majority of reputable international election monitoring organizations, such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union (EU). Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if these organizations report significant irregularities or violations that compromise the election's freedom and fairness.

Background:

The next presidential election is scheduled for 2029, although this contract will resolve for the next presidential election after the 2024 election, regardless of when it is held.

El Salvador held its most recent presidential election on February 4, 2024. Incumbent President Nayib Bukele secured re-election with approximately 84.6% of the vote. His party, Nuevas Ideas, also achieved a significant majority in the Legislative Assembly. (idea.int)

The election took place under a state of emergency that had been in effect since March 2022, which suspended certain constitutional rights and raised concerns about the electoral environment. International observers, including the OAS, noted that while the elections were conducted peacefully, the state of emergency impacted free speech and political competition. (idea.int)

Additionally, the Supreme Court's 2021 decision to allow consecutive presidential terms, despite constitutional prohibitions, and subsequent electoral reforms have been criticized for favoring the ruling party and undermining democratic principles. (freedomhouse.org)

Given these factors, the 2024 election's classification as free and fair remains contentious among international observers and human rights organizations.