Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2100?
Basic
8
Ṁ5092100
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2 degrees C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2100
Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches 2 degrees C then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?
3% chance
Will we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
3% chance
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
6% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2100?
63% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
50% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
45% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2100?
38% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 4°C before 2100?
8% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?
27% chance
Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2100?
23% chance