Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2050? | Manifold

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2050?

Basic

4

Ṁ54

2051

44%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024). Including tests. Only count deaths directly related to the explosion within 10 days of the explosion.

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1,000

and

3.00

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